U.S. Industrial Outlook: Employment Gains Should Lead to Growth in 2016
December 28, 2015 | MAPI FoundationEstimated reading time: 2 minutes
Flat manufacturing production in the fourth quarter of 2015 should give way to 3.3% growth in the first half of 2016, in part because of expected job gains, according to the MAPI Foundation's U.S. Industrial Outlook, a quarterly report that analyzes 27 major industries. The MAPI Foundation is the research affiliate of the Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation.
Manufacturing industrial production rose at a 3.3% annual rate in the third quarter of 2015, a meager recovery from a flat first half of the year, and to which it is anticipated to return in the fourth quarter because of a predicted inventory runoff in November and December.
The MAPI Foundation forecasts manufacturing production growth of 2.6% in 2016, 3.0% in 2017, and 2.8% in 2018. The 2016 forecast is a decrease from 3.4% and the 2017 forecast is lower than the 3.1% in the September report. The MAPI Foundation anticipates overall GDP will advance by 2.9% in 2016, 2.7% in 2017, and 2.5% in 2018.
"The growth driver for the outlook is continued strong employment growth, which creates new income growth and a solid base of consumer spending," said MAPI Foundation Chief Economist Daniel J. Meckstroth, Ph.D. "Another impetus is easy credit availability, which propels big-ticket spending for motor vehicles, residential housing, and nonresidential construction.
"The 2016 outlook is helped by the absorption of the negative shocks in 2015 such as the severe winter that disrupted transportation and shut down plants," he added. "There will not be another West Coast port strike and oil and gas prices will not drop by half again next year. And while the U.S. dollar may appreciate somewhat in 2016, it will not surge 15% again. The absence of these negative shocks provides some positive momentum for 2016."
Page 1 of 2
Suggested Items
Taiflex Announces Grand Opening of Thailand Factory
05/17/2024 | TAIFLEX Scientific Co. LtdTaiflex Scientific Co., Ltd., a global leader in advanced flexible printed circuit (FPC) materials, held the grand opening ceremony of its Thailand factory at the Amata City Chonburi Industrial Estate in Chonburi, Thailand.
TRI Opens New Manufacturing Facility
05/16/2024 | TRITest Research, Inc. (TRI), the leading test and inspection systems provider for the electronics manufacturing industry, announced that it has opened a state-of-the-art R&D and manufacturing facility.
Foxconn Announces Q1 2024 Financial Results
05/14/2024 | Foxconn ElectronicsIn the January-March quarter revenue hit NT$1.324 trillion, with key profit margins all improving. Earnings per share for the first three months of 2024 reached NT$1.59.
American Made Advocacy: What About the Rest of the Technology Stack?
05/14/2024 | Travis Kelly -- Column: American Made AdvocacyThose of us who have been in the industry for any length of time know America manufactures very little of the world’s supply of microelectronics. This happened over decades and was invisible or ignored by policymakers as companies shipped both their ideas and their production to Asia—and made a good profit in the process.
Neways Adds Saab to Its Blue-chip Customer Portfolio
05/13/2024 | NewaysNeways, the global innovator in mission-critical technology for leading semicon, connectivity and smart mobility companies, has onboarded Saab as new customer.