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Solar analysts at IHS Markit will gather at the SNEC 11th International Photovoltaic Power Generation Conference & Exhibition in Shanghai, China, on 17-21 April 2017.
Edurne Zoco, research director for solar and energy storage at IHS Markit, will deliver one of the keynote speeches at SNEC 2017 Conference Opening & Plenary session on 17 April, entitled “Key Trends for Global PV Market in 2017 and Beyond.” She will discuss current key market trends of the global photovoltaic (PV) market and the PV module supply chain as well as the growing importance of energy storage to the solar industry.
Separately, IHS Markit will hold its first solar workshop on 19 April, where top solar analysts will present their analyses and insights on the global PV demand, module supply chain and technology including the following:
Global PV market trends
Despite the strong growth of solar installations in many emerging countries, solar demand is still depending on a handful of countries. “The world’s four largest PV markets -- China, the United States, India and Japan -- will represent nearly three quarters of global PV demand in 2017,” Zoco said.
This year, PV demand growth is expected to slow as demand in China, the United States and Japan is forecast to contract by a combined 9 gigawatts (GW), a 16% drop from 2016. As a result, IHS Markit does not expect global annual growth to go beyond 2% -- in stark contrast to the 35% growth experienced in 2016.
“We anticipate that, similar to previous years, final global demand numbers will be heavily influenced by policy evolution in China in the second half of the year,” Zoco said.
PV supply chain to reduce capacity expansion
As the PV demand growth is expected to slow, PV module manufacturers have considerably reduced the number of capacity expansion. According to the PV Integrated Market Tracker from IHS Markit, crystalline-silicon (C-Si) module manufacturing capacity grew 21% in 2015 and 17% in 2016, but is forecast to expand only 5% in 2017. “Solar manufacturers across the value chain have become more conservative, canceling or delaying plans to build new capacity,” said Holly Hu, senior analyst for solar research at IHS Markit.
P-type C-Si solar panels, whose production cost is low, will continue dominating the market, with about 90% share in total shipments in 2017. The N-type product, which has greater efficiency than the P-type, is forecast to expand its presence but its share will remain at below 10%.
Monocrystalline production to increase its share
In wafer production, monocrystalline technology that has higher efficiency than the multicrystalline is forecast to increase its share to 33% in 2017, up from 29% in 2016. “Drop in production costs and specific demand drivers, such as Top Runner program in China, the government support of PV technology improvement, have increased demand for monocrystalline wafer,” said Jessica Jin, senior analyst for solar research at IHS Markit.
Due to such a strong market demand, monocrystalline wafer capacity grew 31% in 2016 compared to a year ago, while multicrystalline capacity increased by 12%. IHS Markit forecasts that monocrystalline share will reach 37% of the global wafer production by 2020.
About IHS Markit
IHS Markit is a world leader in critical information, analytics and solutions for the major industries and markets that drive economies worldwide. The company delivers next-generation information, analytics and solutions to customers in business, finance and government, improving their operational efficiency and providing deep insights that lead to well-informed, confident decisions. IHS Markit has more than 50,000 key business and government customers, including 85 percent of the Fortune Global 500 and the world’s leading financial institutions. Headquartered in London, IHS Markit is committed to sustainable, profitable growth.