Mobility Services Enhanced by Automated Driving Could Result in Dramatically Fewer Vehicles on Roads by 2035
May 23, 2017 | Navigant ResearchEstimated reading time: 1 minute
A new report from Navigant Research analyzes competing powertrain options for light duty vehicles (LDVs), providing global forecasts for annual sales and vehicle populations, driven by scenario forecasts on battery prices, oil prices, and autonomous mobility system penetrations.
The potential of automated driving technologies promises to disrupt the global transportation system through improved efficiency in cost, time, and space. This is likely to encourage greater adoption of LDV travel via highly utilized vehicles, which are expected to become smaller and increasingly energy efficient. Click to tweet: According to a new report from @NavigantRSRCH, mobility services enhanced by automated driving could result in dramatically fewer vehicles on roads by 2035.
“By decreasing the costs and hassle of LDV travel through automation, transportation is apt to become more dependent on it, but if vehicle automation is not accompanied by electrification or alternative fuels, its net impact will be to increase fossil fuel consumption,” says Scott Shepard, senior research analyst with Navigant Research. “In this respect, city governments will wield significant power in determining what technologies are adopted in automated mobility services, and those determinations are likely to be to the advantage of vehicles with zero-emissions capabilities.”
Alternative fuels do have the potential to serve as reliable replacements to gasoline and diesel, according to the report. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are expected to account for 8 percent of the global LDV population by 2035 but could reach as high as 17 percent with high oil prices and aggressive declines in battery prices.
The report, Transportation Forecast: Light Duty Vehicles, evaluates the economics and capabilities of competing powertrain options that will feed the future transportation system. The study provides market sizing for the overall LDV market and light duty internal combustion engine, stop-start, hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery electric, fuel cell, natural gas, and propane autogas vehicles (ICEVs, SSVs, HEVs, PHEVs, BEVs, FCVs, NGVs, and PAGVs). Global forecasts for annual sales and vehicle populations are driven by scenario forecasts on battery prices, oil prices, and autonomous mobility system penetrations within the LDV fleet. Forecasts are provided by segment under conservative, base, and aggressive scenarios. Core model scenario forecasts are also provided alongside powertrain sensitivities to each scenario parameter.
Suggested Items
Cadence, TSMC Collaborate on Wide-Ranging Innovations to Transform System and Semiconductor Design
04/25/2024 | Cadence Design SystemsCadence Design Systems, Inc. and TSMC have extended their longstanding collaboration by announcing a broad range of innovative technology advancements to accelerate design, including developments ranging from 3D-IC and advanced process nodes to design IP and photonics.
Siemens’ Breakthrough Veloce CS Transforms Emulation and Prototyping with Three Novel Products
04/24/2024 | Siemens Digital Industries SoftwareSiemens Digital Industries Software launched the Veloce™ CS hardware-assisted verification and validation system. In a first for the EDA (Electronic Design Automation) industry, Veloce CS incorporates hardware emulation, enterprise prototyping and software prototyping and is built on two highly advanced integrated circuits (ICs) – Siemens’ new, purpose-built Crystal accelerator chip for emulation and the AMD Versal™ Premium VP1902 FPGA adaptive SoC (System-on-a-chip) for enterprise and software prototyping.
Taiyo Circuit Automation Installs New DP3500 into Fuba Printed Circuits, Tunisia
04/25/2024 | Taiyo Circuit AutomationTaiyo Circuit Automation is proud to be partnered with Fuba Printed Circuits, Tunisia part of the OneTech Group of companies, a leading printed circuit board manufacturer based out of Bizerte, Tunisia, on their first installation of Taiyo Circuit Automation DP3500 coater.
Vicor Power Orders Hentec Industries/RPS Automation Pulsar Solderability Testing System
04/24/2024 | Hentec Industries/RPS AutomationHentec Industries/RPS Automation, a leading manufacturer of selective soldering, lead tinning and solderability test equipment, is pleased to announce that Vicor Power has finalized the purchase of a Pulsar solderability testing system.
Lockheed Martin Successfully Transitions Long Range Discrimination Radar To The Missile Defense Agency
04/23/2024 | Lockheed MartinThe Long Range Discrimination Radar (LRDR) at Clear Space Force Station in Clear, Alaska, completed DD250 final acceptance and was officially handed over to the Missile Defense Agency in preparation for an Operational Capability Baseline (OCB) decision and final transition to the Warfighter. In addition, prior to this transition, the system has started Space Domain Awareness data collects for the United States Space Force.