Polysilicon Prices to Remain High in Q3 due to Tightened Supply
August 18, 2017 | TrendForceEstimated reading time: 2 minutes
The latest PV market analysis from EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce, finds that the average global spot price of polysilicon has surged by 20% between the end of July and the middle of August. The polysilicon supply has tightened up suddenly because the leading supplier in China had to do an emergency repair at one of its factories. This added to the pressure on the supply caused by annual plant maintenance works carried out by other suppliers.
The squeeze on the polysilicon supply will start to loosen in the middle of September, when the U.S. market awaits for the preliminary decision by the U.S. International Commission (ITC) on Suniva’s petition. However, some polysilicon suppliers have plant maintenance tasks scheduled into the third quarter. Therefore, the overall available polysilicon stock will still be quite limited. TrendForce anticipates polysilicon prices to drop again in September, but the average spot price in China is not expected to go under RMB 135 per kilogram.
“This drastic decrease in polysilicon supply is just too great and will have an impact across the PV supply chain,” said EnergyTrend analyst Jason Tsai. “A large portion of the current polysilicon demand that was arranged earlier by the downstream markets will not be met even if polysilicon supplier have released their emergency reserves and buyers scoured the market. Spot prices of multi-Si wafers have also jumped since the shortage of polysilicon limited their supply.”
Furthermore, PV cell suppliers based in Taiwan or have factories in third-party countries are now dealing with an influx of orders, as August is the peak demand period in the U.S. and Europe. To keep up shipments, they will have to bear the polysilicon cost increase that the wafer suppliers have passed on to them in the form higher wafer prices. Small-and medium-size PV cell suppliers in China do not have a lot of orders from foreign markets, so they can lower their capacity utilization rates to moderate the effect of rising polysilicon cost. On the whole, the upstream sections of the PV supply chain are beginning to reap a greater share of the profit margin.
On the demand side, U.S. solar companies have pulled PV module orders ahead so that products will enter the U.S. before the ITC announces its preliminary ruling on Suniva’s petition on September 22. Both module exporters and importers want to minimize the risk of paying cash deposits for duties that may be imposed following the September ruling. Thus, module shipments by sea must leave their departing ports no later than in the latter half of August.
With most deliveries made before September, the effect of Suniva’s petition on the demand across the supply chain will be less significant. Hence, there is a strong chance that demand and prices along the multi-Si product chain will start to fall during September. Prices and demand for mono-Si products on the other hand will be driven by China’s Top Runner Program in the same period. Since the grid-connection deadline for solar projects under the Top Runner Program is September 30, the mono-Si demand is expected to peak in the near term on account of the installation rush. Polysilicon prices will be supported by the tight supply and the demand from the mono-Si market.
Suggested Items
IDTechEx Discusses Low-Loss Materials: The Enabler of Future Connected Vehicles?
05/06/2024 | IDTechExFuture connected vehicles will offer future drivers a safer, smoother, and more convenient driving experience. Not only will drivers get access to more navigation and entertainment options, but they will also gain access to safety technologies that will potentially reduce accidents, improve congestion, and reduce emissions globally by allowing vehicle safety systems to communicate with each other and with city traffic infrastructure.
HBM Prices to Increase by 5–10% in 2025, Accounting for Over 30% of Total DRAM Value
05/06/2024 | TrendForceAvril Wu, TrendForce Senior Research Vice President, reports that the HBM market is poised for robust growth, driven by significant pricing premiums and increased capacity needs for AI chips.
Tablet Shipments Show Signs of Recovery in Q1 2024
05/06/2024 | IDCAfter more than two years of decline, worldwide tablet shipments posted modest year-over-year growth of 0.5% in the first quarter of 2024 (1Q24), totaling 30.8 million units, according to preliminary data from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker.
Industrial PC Market Size to Record $1.75 Billion Growth from 2023-2027
05/03/2024 | PRNewswireThe global industrial pc market size is estimated to grow by USD 1.75 billion from 2023 to 2027, according to Technavio. This growth is expected to occur at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of almost 6.29% during the forecast period.
Real Time with… IPC APEX EXPO 2024: Direct Imaging Equipment and Quad-wave DLP Light Engine Technology
05/03/2024 | Real Time with...IPC APEX EXPOGuest Editor Kelly Dack and MivaTek's Brendan Hogan delve into the company's innovative technologies, including direct imaging equipment and quad-wave DLP light engine technology. They highlight the benefits of direct imaging, compensation, and DART technology.