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DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, points out that, as ripples from the U.S. ban continue to spread, Huawei's shipments of smartphone and server products are feared to face heavy obstacles for the next two to three quarters, impacting peak-season demand for DRAM products 2H and the time of price precipitation. TrendForce officially adjusts its outlook for 3Q DRAM prices from its original prediction of a 10% decline to a widened 10-15%.
TrendForce points out that the chance of DRAM prices dropping below suppliers' fully-loaded costs was originally predicted to be extremely slim under the premises that the competition only consisted of three giants, and that DRAM production processes were nearing physical limits. Yet a heated U.S.-China trade war may send demand in the second half of this year into quick-freeze, with the increasingly looming uncertainty compelling datacenters to make reductions to capex. Fragile DRAM suppliers may have to admit current inventory casualties on the books by the end of this year, and officially modify their financial statements to report: “Loss.”
According to TrendForce's forecast, DRAM prices have a chance to see a rebound in 2020 due to prices hitting bottom, limited supply bit growth and other factors. But for 2019, it is feared that suppliers will come under prolonged pressure to adjust prices downwards.