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The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) declined in June, following an increase in May. The index now stands at 109.51, down from 111.22 (a downward revision) in May. The decrease marks a 0.6 percent gain in the ETI over the past 12 months.
“The Employment Trends Index experienced a big drop in June, but this was primarily driven by a large negative contribution from one component—an increase in the percentage of respondents who say they find ‘Jobs Hard to Get’ in The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey,” said Gad Levanon, Chief Economist, North America, at The Conference Board. “This marks the fourth largest monthly negative contribution in the series history, which is potentially the result of noise rather than a more significant signal. We therefore interpret this month’s large decline in the ETI with caution. With the US economy slowing a little, but still projected to remain above its 2% long-term trend, we expect job growth to remain strong enough to continue tightening the labor market and draw more people off the sidelines.”
June’s decrease was fueled by negative contributions from three of the eight components. From the largest negative contributor to the smallest, these were: Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get,” Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, and Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now.
The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
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