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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.3% in June to 111.5 (2016 = 100), following no change in May, and a 0.1% increase in April.
“The US LEI fell in June, the first decline since last December, primarily driven by weaknesses in new orders for manufacturing, housing permits, and unemployment insurance claims,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “For the first time since late 2007, the yield spread made a small negative contribution. As the US economy enters its eleventh year of expansion, the longest in US history, the LEI suggests growth is likely to remain slow in the second half of the year.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1% in June to 105.9 (2016 = 100), following a 0.2% increase in May, and no change in April.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.6% in June to 107.7 (2016 = 100), following a 0.2% decline in May and no change in April.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.