Slower, but Still Solid Job Growth Further Tightens Labor Market


Reading time ( words)

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 164,000 in July, and the numbers for May and June were revised down. Employment growth has clearly slowed down in 2019, averaging a 141,000 monthly gain in the past six months, versus over 200,000 during 2018.

But even this more modest job growth is enough to continue tightening the labor market. The unemployment rate remained at 3.7% in July, due to an improvement in labor force participation, but the broader labor slack measure, U6, dropped to 7.0%, the lowest since 2000.

As we expect economic growth to remain above the two percent rate for the rest of the year, we do not expect employment growth to significantly slow further. We should expect more of the same in the US labor market: moderate employment growth, labor market tightening, intensifying recruiting and retention difficulties, and higher labor cost growth which will continue to draw more people into the labor force. The combination of slower revenue growth and faster labor cost growth should continue squeezing corporate profits. In this environment, further Fed rate cuts are somewhat less obvious.

 About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what's ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.

Share

Print


Suggested Items

NASA Research Could Save Commercial Airlines Billions in New Era of Aviation

01/05/2016 | NASA
The nation’s airlines could realize more than $250 billion dollars in savings in the near future thanks to green-related technologies developed and refined by NASA’s aeronautics researchers during the past six years.

China CIOs Need to Change to Grasp Digital Break

02/10/2015 | Gartner, Inc.
Chief information officers (CIOs) in China are less aware than their global counterparts that they will need to change in order to succeed in digital business, according to a new report from Gartner, Inc.



Copyright © 2019 I-Connect007. All rights reserved.