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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.5% in July to 112.2 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1% decline in June, and a 0.1% decline in May.
“The US LEI increased in July, following back-to-back modest declines. Housing permits, unemployment insurance claims, stock prices and the Leading Credit Index were the major drivers of the improvement,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “However, the manufacturing sector continues exhibiting signs of weakness and the yield spread was negative for a second consecutive month. While the LEI suggests the US economy will continue to expand in the second half of 2019, it is likely to do so at a moderate pace.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2% in July to 106.2 (2016 = 100), following a 0.2% increase in June, and a 0.1% increase in May.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.6% in July to 108.5 (2016 = 100), following a 0.5% increase in June, and a 0.1% decline in May.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component—primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.