Replaceable Solar Cell


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“Historical trends show that solar panel technology keeps getting more efficient year after year, and these improvements are bound to continue for years to come,” says Bulović. Perovskite-based solar cells, for example, when first developed less than a decade ago, had efficiencies of only a few percent. But recently their record performance exceeded 25 percent efficiency, compared to 27 percent for the record silicon cell and about 20 percent for today’s standard silicon modules, according to Bulović. Importantly, in novel device designs, a perovskite solar cell can be stacked on top of another perovskite, silicon, or thin-film cell, to raise the maximum achievable efficiency limit to over 40 percent, which is well above the 30 percent fundamental limit of today’s silicon solar technologies. But perovskites have issues with longevity of operation and have not yet been shown to be able to come close to meeting the 25-year standard.

Bulović hopes the study will “shift the paradigm of what has been accepted as a global truth.” Up to now, he says, “many promising technologies never even got a start, because the bar is set too high” on the need for durability.

For their analysis, the team looked at three different kinds of solar installations: a typical 6-kilowatt residential system, a 200-kilowatt commercial system, and a large 100-megawatt utility-scale system with solar tracking. They used NREL benchmark parameters for U.S. solar systems and a variety of assumptions about future progress in solar technology development, financing, and the disposal of the initial panels after replacement, including recycling of the used modules. The models were validated using four independent tools for calculating the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), a standard metric for comparing the economic viability of different sources of electricity.

In all three installation types, they found, depending on the particulars of local conditions, replacement with new modules after 10 to 15 years could in many cases provide economic advantages while maintaining the many environmental and emissions-reduction benefits of solar power. The basic requirement for cost-competitiveness is that any new solar technology that is to be installed in the U.S should start with a module efficiency of at least 20 percent, a cost of no more than 30 cents per watt, and a lifetime of at least 10 years, with the potential to improve on all three.

Jean points out that the solar technologies that are considered standard today, mostly silicon-based but also thin-film variants such as cadmium telluride, “were not very stable in the early years. The reason they last 25 to 30 years today is that they have been developed for many decades.” The new analysis may now open the door for some of the promising newer technologies to be deployed at sufficient scale to build up similar levels of experience and improvement over time and to make an impact on climate change earlier than they could without module replacement, he says.

“This could enable us to launch ideas that would have died on the vine” because of the perception that greater longevity was essential, Bulović says.

The study was supported by the Tata-MIT GridEdge Solar research program.

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