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Autonomous driving holds great promises for increasing road safety and efficiency, as well as for decreasing future travel cost. Many companies have already been operating testing fleets on public roads and have announced plans to commercialize robotaxi services in the next 2-3 years. How will autonomous driving shape the future of the automotive sector? Market intelligence company, IDTechEx, has recently published its latest report on autonomous mobility titled “Autonomous Cars and Robotaxis 2020-2040”. According to IDTechEx’s forecasts, global autonomous car (SAE Level 3+) and robotaxi services will become a $2.5 trillion market by 2040.
The report provides a comprehensive and in-depth analysis of enabling technologies, key players and market trends over the next 20 years in autonomous cars and shared autonomous mobility services. Autonomous driving is shifting the existing automotive supply chain from the traditional system of OEMs and suppliers to a collaborative ecosystem comprising OEMs, mobility service providers, software and hardware solution providers, as well as infrastructure providers. Autonomous driving provides huge value opportunities for a wide range of stakeholders across the mobility sector. The report provides a comprehensive overview of the landscape of autonomous driving through case studies of stakeholders in the autonomous driving ecosystem, ranging from auto OEMs and suppliers to tech start-ups and service providers.
The autonomous driving ecosystem requires a different approach to traditional automotive development, in that it focuses on the full technology stack of hardware such as sensors, computing platforms, and non-hardware components including AI software and HD maps. The report offers an in-depth analysis of key enabling technologies including lidars, radars, cameras, AI software, HD maps, teleoperation, cybersecurity, and 5G & V2X. Key players with their latest technologies and product commercialization plans are presented as the case studies of this report.
Autonomous driving technologies will accelerate the shift of private car ownership towards shared mobility or mobility-as-a-service (MaaS). Mobility services enabled by autonomous driving technology, which allows fleet operators to get rid of the biggest operation cost—the human driver—will offer a cheaper alternative to purchasing and owning a private car. In the next two decades, we expect MaaS will grow rapidly to meet the increasing travel demand and in the meantime gradually replace private driving. IDTechEx forecasts that in a moderate scenario, 30% of the total travel demand will be provided by MaaS by 2040 and global passenger car sales are expected to peak in 2031. The report provides a twenty-year market forecast, in both sales numbers and revenues, for both private-owned autonomous cars and shared cars for mobility services (or robotaxis).