Reading time ( words)
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for India decreased 0.5 percent in September to 102.5 (2010 = 100), following a 0.5 percent decline in August and a 1.7 percent increase in July. Positive contributors to the index were the interest rate spread, M3: bank credit to commercial sector, and cargo handled*. The SENSEX stock prices index, the real effective exchange rate (36 countries), merchandise exports, and PMI: services business activity declined, while industrial production: capital goods* remained unchanged.
“The Leading Economic Index for India fell in September for the second consecutive month, led by declining stock prices, a sliding exchange rate, and a pull back in exports and the service sector,” said Jing Sima, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. “Despite further easing of monetary policy, India will continue facing challenges in the near future from both tepid domestic demand and a slower global growth climate.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for India, which measures current economic activity, decreased 0.6 percent in September to 110.4 (2010 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in August and a 1.2 percent increase in July. Only industrial production* increased in September.
The Conference Board LEI for India aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in India. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for India was launched in September 2013. Plotted back to April 1990, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of India. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, Brazil, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.