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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for China increased 1.6 percent in September to 339.5 (2004 = 100), following a 1.0 percent increase in August and a 0.9 percent increase in July. Floor space started and total loans issued by financial institutions made the largest positive contributions to the index, followed by the consumer expectations index. The PMI new export orders index and the (inverted) PMI supplier delivery index continued to decline in September.
"China's economic situation, as measured by the coincident index, slowed substantially in September, due to very weak consumer demand and a struggling industrial sector," said Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing. "While improving bank credit growth and new housing starts may provide some stabilization to economic growth in the fourth quarter, persistent weaknesses in exports and the manufacturing sector will continue to drag on the economy."
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, decreased 1.2 percent in September to 277.3 (2004 = 100), following a 0.7 percent increase in August and a 1.0 percent increase in July. Retail sales of consumer goods and electricity production made the largest negative contributions to the index in September.
The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(LEI) for China
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, Brazil, the Euro Area, France, Germany, India, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.