Record PV Module Production and Shipments Forecast through 1H of 2016
November 10, 2015 | IHSEstimated reading time: 2 minutes
Strong solar photovoltaic (PV) production and shipments are forecast during the first half of 2016, due to installation deadlines, sunsetting solar tax credits and other policy dynamics of the two largest global solar markets, China and the United States. Global solar PV installations are forecast to increase by 33 percent in 2015, to reach 58.7 gigawatts (GW). Demand will remain strong, but growth will slow to 12 percent in 2016. Global solar PV demand will reach 65.5 GW next year, according to IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS), the leading global source of critical information and insight.
Strong PV demand, and supply restrictions to the U.S. market created by anti-dumping trade disputes, will prevent prices from falling in the first half of 2016. Most tier-one module and wafer suppliers will experience limited product availability until the second quarter (Q2) of 2016, partly due to high demand from installations in China and the United States. “Given the current shortage, wafer prices might still rise for a few months, despite declining polysilicon prices,” said Edurne Zoco, senior manager and principal analyst, IHS Technology.
The additional quota announced by China last month will be connected by June 2016, in order to receive 2015 incentives, and at that point the majority of modules for large ground-mounted U.S. projects are also expected to be completed. For these reasons, average selling prices (ASPs) along the module value-chain are forecast to fall in the second half of 2016.
“Global PV demand for 2017 will slow, which will adversely affect module ASPs and margins in the second half of 2016,” Zoco said. “There will be some buildup of inventory, and module price declines will be much heavier than they were in 2015 and during the first half of 2016. A slump in global PV demand in 2017 looks increasingly likely, as the United States is expected to suffer a major decline in 2017, following planned significant reductions in the country’s investment tax credit.”
Stalling utility-scale project development in 2017 will lead to a predicted 7.8 GW decline in annual installations. The remainder of the global market will grow by 11 percent; however, this growth rate will not entirely counter the sharper decline in the United States, which will cause the global market to fall by low single digits in 2017. “It’s important to note that new policy regulations and incentives in other global markets could mitigate some of the forecasted slowing growth in 2017,” Zoco said.
About IHS
IHS is the leading source of insight, analytics and expertise in critical areas that shape today’s business landscape. Businesses and governments in more than 150 countries around the globe rely on the comprehensive content, expert independent analysis and flexible delivery methods of IHS to make high-impact decisions and develop strategies with speed and confidence. IHS has been in business since 1959 and became a publicly traded company on the New York Stock Exchange in 2005. Headquartered in Englewood, Colorado, USA, IHS is committed to sustainable, profitable growth and employs about 8,800 people in 32 countries around the world.
Suggested Items
SMC Korea 2024 to Highlight Semiconductor Materials Trends and Innovations on Industry’s Path to $1 Trillion
04/24/2024 | SEMIWith Korea a major consumer of semiconductor materials and advanced materials a key driver of innovation on the industry’s path to $1 trillion, industry leaders and experts will gather at SMC (Strategic Materials Conference) Korea 2024 on May 29 at the Suwon Convention Center in Gyeonggi-do, South Korea to provide insights into the latest materials developments and trends. Registration is open.
LG Display to Mass Produce World's First Gaming OLED Panel With Switchable Refresh Rate and Resolution
04/24/2024 | PRNewswireLG Display, the world's leading innovator of display technologies, announced that it has developed the first-ever Gaming OLED panel with a switchable refresh rate and resolution. The company has begun mass production of the 31.5-inch panel this month, accelerating its push into the high-end gaming display market with new concept products.
Alternative Manufacturing Inc. Awarded QML Requalification to IPC J-STD-001 and IPC-A-610
04/24/2024 | IPCIPC's Validation Services Program has awarded an IPC J-STD-001 and IPC-A-610 Qualified Manufacturers Listing (QML) requalification to Alternative Manufacturing Inc (AMI).
GlobalFoundries Commits to Achieving Net Zero Emissions and Carbon-Neutral Power by 2050
04/23/2024 | GlobalFoundriesGlobalFoundries (GF) is furthering its commitment to sustainable operations and fighting climate change with the announcement of two new long-term goals to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and 100% carbon-neutral power by 2050.
ROHM Group Company SiCrystal and STMicroelectronics Expand Silicon Carbide Wafer Supply Agreement
04/23/2024 | ROHMROHM and STMicroelectronics, a global semiconductor leader serving customers across the spectrum of electronics applications, announced today the expansion of the existing multi-year, long-term 150mm silicon carbide (SiC) substrate wafers supply agreement with SiCrystal, a ROHM group company.