Internet of Things: The Real Situation Revealed at Last
November 14, 2016 | IDTechExEstimated reading time: 3 minutes
Researched in late 2016 with ongoing updates, the new IDTechEx report on the Internet of Things (IoT), Internet of Things (IoT) 2017-2027 is intended to assist investors, participants and intending participants and users. The report is mostly in the form of easily assimilated infograms, roadmaps and forecasts. The report is about nodes that sense, learn, gather data and initiate reports and action using IP addressed sensor nodes to process and send information. It is realistic and analytical not evangelical. Consequently our forecasts do not repeat the mantra about tens of billions of nodes being deployed in only a few years. The many analysts sticking to such euphoria ignore the fact that, contrary to their expectation, very little IoT was deployed in 2016. They are "bubble pushing" with their forecasts, predicting ever steeper take-off to the point of physical impossibility. That is a triumph of hope over reality.
However, our ongoing global travel, interviews, conferences and research by our multi-lingual PhD level analysts located across the world does lead us to believe that a large market will eventually emerge but not primarily for nodes, where our price sensitivity analysis and experimentation shows commoditisation rapidly arriving. Indeed, as Cisco correctly notes, it is a pre-requisite for success. The money will lie in the systems, software and support examined in this study though we also look closely at node design to reveal all the impediments to progress as well as the things coming right and the potential for enhanced functionality and payback. For example, the ongoing major breaches of internet security with small connected devices sit awkwardly with system and software manufacturers' claims year after year that they have cracked the problem.
The most primitive IoT nodes have an actuator and no sensor as with connected Raspberry Pi single board computers retrofitted to air conditioning for remote operation. We have talked to the CEO of Raspberry Pi, to systems and node suppliers, academics and many others and assessed their replies.
IoT centres around things collaborating for the benefit of humans without human intervention at the time. It does not include the Internet of People which is a renaming of the world of connected personal electronics operated by humans: it has completely different characteristics and it is cynical to conflate it with IoT. Nevertheless, we show how IoT nodes can be on people and quantify the appropriate part of wearables market because is relevant. The report explains further with a host of examples and options, even giving forecasts for agricultural robots following several respondents seeing agriculture as an important potential IoT market. Because we run our own IoT events, we get the inside track first.
As IoT moves to higher volumes - billions rather than millions yearly - the nodes will typically not be hard wired: wireless nodes will have battery power and increasingly energy harvesting (EH) on-board because it will be impractical to change batteries. We consider the unsolved problem of suitable EH and the possibilities for solving it.
The largest potential applications will be multi-sensor so, for many reasons, component count will increase making cost reduction more difficult. We look at expenditure on IoT enabling technology which currently runs to billions of dollars yearly, mainly coming from governments and aspiring suppliers. However, we reveal how most of those reporting these and other IoT figures are puffing their data with things that may never be a part of the IoT scene such as sensor research in general.
Expenditure on buying and installing actual IoT networks is much more modest, contrary to heroic forecasts made by most analysts and manufacturers in the past. IDTechEx was disbelieving about this for the last four years yet even our node forecasts have now been reduced in the light of what has happened, though our systems figures have been increased. It adds up to $20 billion in actual networks including nodes in ten years from now and rapid progress after that. See the number and dollar breakdown by application. Learn which players do what.
Suggested Items
Punching Out: Acquiring a PCB/EMS Shop: Brownfield vs. Greenfield
03/27/2024 | Tom Kastner -- Column: Punching Out!We often get asked about establishing a new company (greenfield) rather than buying an existing PCB or EMS shop (brownfield). There are many criteria to consider. Many buyers want to grow through M&A, but they cannot find acquisition targets that fit their criteria. Perhaps they can find the right shop, or at least one that fits five out of 10 criteria, but they encounter obstacles, such as owners who do not want to sell, price expectations that are too high, or negotiations that are too difficult. Despite the interest in building new facilities, since 2000, few companies have gone the greenfield route. Here is a look at the pros and cons of buying vs. building.
Blackfox Ready for IPC APEX EXPO 2024
03/26/2024 | Andy Shaughnessy, I-Connect007Blackfox Training Institute offers IPC-certified training for a myriad of PCB assembly techniques and standard certifications. With many technologists beginning to eye retirement, this training is at a premium. I recently spoke with Jamie Noland, director of training and education for Blackfox, about the company’s latest educational efforts, and his plans for the upcoming IPC APEX EXPO, where Blackfox will be exhibiting.
Catching Up With Industry M&A Expert Tom Kastner of GP Ventures
02/21/2024 | Dan Beaulieu, D.B. Management GroupEvery year or so, I like to chat with my friend, M&A expert Tom Kastner of GP Ventures. I know he has been busy the past few years, so I was anxious to find out more about it. He is the one person I know who really has his finger on the pulse of the industry. Tom has always been a great source of information for me and the industry as a whole.
AT&S Opens First Plant in Malaysia
01/22/2024 | AT&SAT&S will officially open its first plant in Kulim, Malaysia, on 24 January 2024 and expects numerous guests from the world of politics and business on this occasion.
Fein-Lines: CES 2024—A Tech Gadget Lover’s Dream
01/17/2024 | Dan Feinberg -- Column: Fein-Lines“Open sesame” is a magical phrase in the story of "Ali Baba and the Forty Thieves" in Antoine Galland's version of One Thousand and One Nights. In the story, this phrase opens the mouth of a cave in which 40 thieves have hidden a treasure. Attending CES was like opening the mouth to a cave of treasures. As soon as the show floor opened, I quickly realized that the two days available to me were not nearly enough. There were truly many hidden treasures now being revealed.